A Look Back at Election '04: or Why Kerry Lost
Well, the bloggers have definitely had a lot to write about the past few days. I have kept pretty quiet just trying to soak up everything and formulate my own opinions as to why things happened the way they did. There are a few key reasons that I think the Democratic Party was unsuccessful in the bid for President. These reasons are not a surprise or new, but my take on them might be a little different.
Reason #1: The Candidates.
I think that the selection of John Kerry as the Democratic candidate was probably the wrong choice. John Kerry who is known as Liberal #1 was destined to have a tough time "converting" those republicans who may have been dissatisfied with G.W.'s first term. Those voters would probably have responded to a more conservative Democratic candidate. Maybe Zel Miller, or Lieberman would have been a better choice.
Also the selection of John Edwards as the running mate probably hurt Kerry's chances. What has he really done? I feel that basically they found that they needed a younger and more attractive running mate to compensate for the dull "Lurch-like" Kerry. Apparently the country didn't buy it.
Reason #2: Being on the Wrong Side of Two Important Issues.
The two issues that were focused on the most during this election were definitely national security/terrorism and the economy. I include the War in Iraq as part of the first. Obviously those things are important and should have been looked at. But what happened is that two specific issues were overlooked. The first is that of abortion, the second is same-sex marriage.
Exit polling(which I talk about later) showed that most people listed moral values as one of the top things they looked for in a candidate. Kerry's position on abortion and same-sex marriage hurt his chances with most Evangelical Christians as well as many other Christian denominations. That is probably why he didn't win a single southern state.
Reason #3: Reliance on the Non-existent Increase of the Youth Vote
I think that the Kerry Campaign relied too heavily on the youth vote and as a result they were hurt by it. The youth were supposed to turn out in droves, and theoretically most of those votes would have gone to Kerry. What happened however was that the youth did what youth do and slacked off. They didn't come out in droves and Kerry didn't get those votes. Michael Moore's campus tour obviously didn't help too much.
Reason #4: Early Celebration as a Result of Inaccurate Exit Polling
I guess this really isn't a reason that he lost per say, but it was a factor in the image of his campaign during the election. In the beginning the exit polls showed that Kerry would win the election by a landslide. The Kerry Camp started to celebrate until a few hours later when the real results started to come in. After that it was all Bush.
Reason #5: Teresa Heinz Kerry
Maybe not a real reason, but I had to include it anyway. This woman has said some of the most insulting things during the campaign, which included remarks made about Laura Bush that proved to be inaccurate. I don't think she was a major factor in why Kerry lost, but she did more damage than good.
What we've learned
I think that this election showed that the majority of the country are still morally conservative. The Democrats have been focusing too much time on special interest groups and listening to people like the ACLU and Al Sharpton. Instead of trying to make the country be the way they want it, they should realize that the country knows what it wants and it's not socialism.
Reason #1: The Candidates.
I think that the selection of John Kerry as the Democratic candidate was probably the wrong choice. John Kerry who is known as Liberal #1 was destined to have a tough time "converting" those republicans who may have been dissatisfied with G.W.'s first term. Those voters would probably have responded to a more conservative Democratic candidate. Maybe Zel Miller, or Lieberman would have been a better choice.
Also the selection of John Edwards as the running mate probably hurt Kerry's chances. What has he really done? I feel that basically they found that they needed a younger and more attractive running mate to compensate for the dull "Lurch-like" Kerry. Apparently the country didn't buy it.
Reason #2: Being on the Wrong Side of Two Important Issues.
The two issues that were focused on the most during this election were definitely national security/terrorism and the economy. I include the War in Iraq as part of the first. Obviously those things are important and should have been looked at. But what happened is that two specific issues were overlooked. The first is that of abortion, the second is same-sex marriage.
Exit polling(which I talk about later) showed that most people listed moral values as one of the top things they looked for in a candidate. Kerry's position on abortion and same-sex marriage hurt his chances with most Evangelical Christians as well as many other Christian denominations. That is probably why he didn't win a single southern state.
Reason #3: Reliance on the Non-existent Increase of the Youth Vote
I think that the Kerry Campaign relied too heavily on the youth vote and as a result they were hurt by it. The youth were supposed to turn out in droves, and theoretically most of those votes would have gone to Kerry. What happened however was that the youth did what youth do and slacked off. They didn't come out in droves and Kerry didn't get those votes. Michael Moore's campus tour obviously didn't help too much.
Reason #4: Early Celebration as a Result of Inaccurate Exit Polling
I guess this really isn't a reason that he lost per say, but it was a factor in the image of his campaign during the election. In the beginning the exit polls showed that Kerry would win the election by a landslide. The Kerry Camp started to celebrate until a few hours later when the real results started to come in. After that it was all Bush.
Reason #5: Teresa Heinz Kerry
Maybe not a real reason, but I had to include it anyway. This woman has said some of the most insulting things during the campaign, which included remarks made about Laura Bush that proved to be inaccurate. I don't think she was a major factor in why Kerry lost, but she did more damage than good.
What we've learned
I think that this election showed that the majority of the country are still morally conservative. The Democrats have been focusing too much time on special interest groups and listening to people like the ACLU and Al Sharpton. Instead of trying to make the country be the way they want it, they should realize that the country knows what it wants and it's not socialism.
posted by Spencer at
8:53 AM
1 Comments:
What I find interesting was that neither side was centrist enough to really grab any kind of lion's share, neither in the popular vote, nor in the electoral college votes.
It really was a polarizing election, and much of the buzz I heard was that people were having a hard time deciding which one they disliked the least. Both seemed to be too far away from the center to really catch a lot of fervor.
MRKH
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